Sunday Marks One Of The Latest Accumulating Snowfalls In Twin Cities History

This is just a sign that winter is pretty much over, right? Sunday marks one of the latest accumulating snowfalls in Twin Cities history, and the latest 1"+ snowfall on record. The latest measurable (0.1"+) snowfall on record for the Twin Cities (in case you were wondering) was back on May 24, 1925 when lows were around freezing and 0.1" of snow fell. Read more about historical Twin Cities May snow events from the Minnesota Climatology Office.

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May Precipitation (Through Friday) Update

There has been a stark difference in where (most of) the precipitation has fallen this month across the state of Minnesota. While just under 1.25" of rain has fallen in the Twin Cities, if you go south toward the I-90 corridor you end up in a band of 3-5" of rain, including over 4" so far this month in Rochester. Meanwhile, if you go north to areas like St. Cloud, Brainerd and Duluth, less than a quarter inch has fallen through the first 18 days of the month.

Most of the state is running a rainfall deficit so far this month, which is allowing abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions to spread. The only two NWS climate locations that have received above average precipitation through the first 18 days of May in Minnesota have been Rochester and International Falls.

This tells a bit of this story in itself. According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, St. Cloud has recorded their fifth driest start to May on record and Duluth has recorded their 10th driest, meanwhile Rochester has recorded their eighth wettest. The Twin CIties is sitting at their 57th driest start to May on record. Hopefully we can get some beneficial rain into the region (and not just across far southern Minnesota) soon.

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Looking Ahead to a Promising Holiday Weekend
By Paul Douglas

Friday evening, minutes before appearing on TPT "Almanac", a guest in the control room said "Paul, you're even more accurate than the Farmer's Almanac!" Thank you. I think? I'm not sure whether to laugh or weep, so I'll do both.

Predicting the future is problematic. Weather forecasting isn't an exact science, like economics or foreign policy. Weather models are getting better; fewer tornadoes touch down without warning now. But we still have a long way to go.

Rochester is having the 8th wettest start to May on record, but this is the 57th driest start to May at MSP; the 5th driest in St. Cloud. My weather spidey-sense is telling me that moderate drought impacting far northern Minnesota may spread into central counties soon. I hope I'm wrong.

We salvage a fine Sunday with 70 degrees, before a disturbance kicks up a shower (opportunity) tonight into Monday. 80s & sticky humidity levels return later this week, with numerous T-storms cluttering up the Doppler. Let it rain.

Holiday weekend weather brings a shower risk Saturday, but Sunday and Monday look sunny with low to mid 80s!

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant. High 70. Low 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Cooler, chance of a few showers. High 63. Low 52. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Plenty of mild sunshine. High 77. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More humid, few T-storms around. High 80. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Sticky with scattered T-storms. High 82. Low 67. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: Some AM sun, numerous PM storms. High 83. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind W 8-13 mph.
SATURDAY: Breezy with a passing shower possible. High 80. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 20th

1892: Very late season snowfall hits central Minnesota. Maple Plain receives 4 inches of snow, with 3 inches falling in Minneapolis. This is the latest significant snow on record for the Twin Cities, and one of the latest widespread snowfalls in Minnesota.

1876: A tornado touches down near Ft. Ripley.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 20th

Average High: 71F (Record: 94F set in 2009)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 31F set in 1892)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 1.47" set in 2017)
Average Snow: 0.0" (Record: 3.0" set in 1892)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 20th

Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:41 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 2 minutes and 8 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 3 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 5:30 AM Or Earlier: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*Next Sunset Of 9:00 PM Or Later: June 12th (9:00 PM)
*Day With Most Daylight? June 21st (Daylight Length: 15:36:49)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Sunday will bring a mix of sun and clouds across most of the state. The main exception will be far southern Minnesota, where a few showers will be possible. Highs will be coolest across southern Minnesota with the clouds and rain, as well as along the North Shore. In these areas, highs will only be in the 50s and 60s. Elsewhere, highs are expected to be around 70.

Highs will be above average by a few degrees across northern Minnesota Sunday, with below average temperatures across southern Minnesota.

Taking a look at the forecast Sunday in the Twin Cities, temperatures will start out in the upper 40s in the morning hours with highs climbing to around 70. Winds will be out of the east northeast at 5-10 mph.

Temperatures will be on the increase next week across the Twin Cities, with highs back around 80 by Wednesday, lasting into at least the first part of the Memorial Day weekend.

Looking at the precipitation forecast, we do see an increase in rain chances by the middle and end of the week. There is a rain chance Monday across the Twin Cities, but rainfall amounts are expected to be light. Some showers and storms are possible Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and then a late week front looks to bring more rain to the region.

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National Weather Forecast

On Sunday, an area of low pressure will move from the Kansas City area in the morning to around St. Louis by the evening. This low, with its associated fronts, will allow showers and storms to form from the central and southern Plains into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Showers and storms will be possible across the Southeast due to daytime heating. Showers and storms will be possible across the Great Basin and Rockies due to an upper-level trough.

A wide swath of at least 1-2" of rain is expected across a good portion of the central and eastern United States through next Thursday morning. The heaviest rain looks to occur across parts of Florida due to daytime showers and storms along with deep moisture each of the next several days.

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Experts: Hurricane season may be less active than first predicted  

More from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune: “The upcoming six-month Atlantic hurricane season could be slightly less active than originally predicted, but Floridians should still brace for the potential for a catastrophic storm that any season could spawn, experts warned.  Weather experts from Colorado State University are predicting an average hurricane season due to cooler waters in the Atlantic Ocean — a departure from their initial forecast early last month of above-average activity. The team's official forecast will be released May 31, one day before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.

Two-degree warming may cause droughts in the Mediterranean region

More from Phys.org: “The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to droughts. The region is densely populated and receives rainfall mainly during winter. In the summer months, the Mediterranean countries depend on the rain that fell the previous winter.  A new study led by Camille Li, professor at the University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre, shows that a two-degree warming could have serious consequences in the Mediterranean region. The model study, which compares the differences between a warming of 1.5 degrees and 2.0 degrees from pre-industrial times (1850), shows that serious changes occur around the Mediterranean in the 2.0 degree experiment.

Someone, somewhere, is making a banned chemical that destroys the ozone layer, scientists suspect

More from The Washington Post: “Emissions of a banned, ozone-depleting chemical are on the rise, a group of scientists reported Wednesday, suggesting someone may be secretly manufacturing the pollutant in violation of an international accord.  Emissions of CFC-11 have climbed 25 percent since 2012, despite the chemical being part of a group of ozone pollutants that were phased out under the 1987 Montreal Protocol.  “I’ve been making these measurements for more than 30 years, and this is the most surprising thing I’ve seen,” said Stephen Montzka, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who led the work. “I was astounded by it, really.”

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Rinse and Repeat: Heaviest Rains Track South of MSP This Weekend

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