By Paul Douglas
Sandy was a Category 1 strength storm when it came ashore near Atlantic City at high tide - during a full moon. The timing couldn't have been much worse. It'll take months to get some towns back up to speed. I'm seeing damage estimates over $100 billion, close to Katrina's toll of $146 billion in 2005.
Imagine what a Category 4 hurricane on a similar track could do? A well-documented sea level rise of one foot made the surge much worse. A paper at Nature predicts, based on warming oceans & rising sea level: "storms that used to occur every 100 years can be expected between 5 and 33 times as often later this century.
The cold fronts we love to complain about innoculate Minnesota from the worst storms on the planet. Light jacket
weather lingers into midweek; highs near 50 tomorrow. We warm near 60 by late week, before a surge of Canadian air arrives next weekend. No storms. We're heading into winter with a 5 to 8 inch rainfall deficit across much of the metro. Let's hope for big, sloppy, southern storms in 2013.
The same model that helped me predict Sandy (ECMWF) brings a Nor'easter up the east coast by next Wednesday. It's no Sandy - but it should add insult to injury.
Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota (and western Wisconsin too):
SATURDAY: Patchy clouds. Sprinkle or flurry. East wind 10 mph. High 46. Low 33.
SUNDAY: More sun, a bit milder. SE wind 5-10 mph. High 50. Low 34.
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. High 49. Low 35.
TUESDAY: Early rain shower on Election Day? High 47. Low 38.
WEDNESDAY: More sun, a cool breeze. High 50. Low 32.
THURSDAY: Blue sky, quite pleasant. High 53. Low 34.
FRIDAY: Fading sun. Hints of Indian Summer. High 56. Low 37.
Happy Saturday everyone, and happy Minnesota deer hunting opener! Thanks to my friend Brianna Netter for this photo from up north, getting ready for the hunt! For those up north today, trying to catch their prize, there will be some scattered flurries with temperature hovering around 40 under cloudy skies. Closer to home, a flurry or sprinkle is possible with mid 40s for temperatures as you head out to any local events.
The model outputs show the flurry possibility on Saturday, with no snow through the rest of the week. For snow lovers, the season is holding off so far. The Twin Cities on average sees 8.8" of snow, therefore the other boot has to drop at one point!
Our SnowCast shows the possibility of an inch across mainly northwestern Minnesota through Sunday morning. Areas in North Dakota, however, could pick up up to 4" of snow this weekend.
We may have to watch late next week, however. The GFS paints the possibility of a few inches in northern Minnesota, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes and north. There had been some previous model runs that had the possibility of bringing the snow closer to the St. Cloud and Twin Cities areas. Model image via WeatherBell Models.
As our weather remains calm, we continue to watch the recovery efforts in the northeast, along with talk of another storm that may affect the area.
Recovery in the Northeast
Image via the AP/Youtube
Tempers are starting to flare in portions of the northeast as gas stations are running out of fuel needed to help keep generators running and the transportation industry slowly gets going. From WABC-TV:
"There's plenty of gasoline in the Northeast - just not at gas stations. In parts of New York and New Jersey, drivers face another day of lining up for hours at gas stations struggling to stay supplied. AAA estimates that 60 percent of the stations in New Jersey are shut, with the figure as high as 70 percent on Long Island. Relief is slowly on the way. Ports and terminals in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania are open and portions of two key pipelines are expected to re-open today. And Kloza -- who suspects part of the long lines stem from panic-buying -- says any price rise should be short-term."
Meanwhile, critism from residents as well as some runners has led Mayor Bloomberg and the New York Road Runners to cancel Sunday's running of the NYC Marathon. They released the following statement (read more from ESPN):
"The marathon has always brought our city together and inspired us with stories of courage and determination. We would not want a cloud to hang over the race or its participants, and so we have decided to cancel it. We cannot allow a controversy over an athletic event -- even one as meaningful as this -- to distract attention away from all the critically important work that is being done to recover from the storm and get our city back on track. The New York Road Runners will have additional information in the days ahead for participants."
Temperatures will remain below normal today for recovery efforts, however we should see fairly nice weather conditions throughout the weekend.
The next concern for the northeast, however, will be the possibility of a Nor'Easter next week.
While the GFS (top image) now has a system not affecting the northeast, the Euro (bottom image) still has a strong system moving into the Maryland/Delaware area next Thursday. The system could bring heavy rain and snow to portions of the northeast if it does happen. It is still almost a week out, but bares attention. Model images via WeatherBell Models.
Election Day Forecast
The good news is that we should see fairly nice weather conditions over much of the country for Election Day. Some showers are possible over the northwest and southeast.
Daylight Saving Time Ends
Don't forget before you go to bed Saturday Night to set your clock back one hour as Daylight Saving Time ends! It is also a great time to check your batteries in important devices like smoke and CO detectors, as well as your Weather Radio. Also remember... you'll gain an hour of daylight in the morning (Sunrise: 7:55 am Saturday, 6:56 am Sunday) but lose an hour of daylight in the evening (Sunset: 5:58 pm Saturday, 4:56 pm Sunday).
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser
Follow me on Twitter at: @weathrlver