Frost And Freeze Concerns Sunday Night

If you have any plants outside, make sure you either bring them in or cover them up Sunday Night as a Frost Advisory has been issued for a good portion of the state. Lows are expected to drop across the Frost Advisory area into the low and mid-30s. Out in far western Minnesota there is a Freeze Warning for Sunday Night, with temperatures there expected to drop to near 30F. Here's the text of the advisory for the Twin Cities:

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued a Frost Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday. * TEMPERATURE...Low to mid 30s. * IMPACTS...Sensitive vegetation may be damaged if left unprotected.

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A Cool, Wet, Windy (For Most) Saturday

This has been just an excellent May weekend, hasn't it? Yes, that was said with some sarcasm. It was a cool Saturday in the Twin Cities, with highs only making it to the mid-50s. Parts of central and northern Minnesota didn't even make it out of the 40s. Meanwhile, the warm front had lifted just far enough north that parts of southern Minnesota were in the 70s for highs, including a high of 78F in Fairmont.

It was also a wet Saturday, especially during the morning hours. Places like Paynesville, Princeton, and St. Cloud all ended up with over 2" of rain.

And it was also a windy day across the region, with some areas of the state seeing wind gusts that topped 40 mph.

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Even Colder (And Still Wet) Sunday As Well

And then... there was Sunday, which was even cooler across many areas of the state. Highs were stuck in the 40s and 50s for most locations, and both St. Cloud and Brainerd tied their coldest May 19th on record. Those records for the day are below.

It was also a wet Sunday, with the heaviest rain falling in parts of southern and eastern Minnesota. Both reporting locations in Rochester as well as Cambridge and Rush City saw over an inch of rain fall. Rainfall numbers are through the early evening hours.

Meanwhile, accumulating snow fell in Duluth. Maybe at some point this spring or summer we'll be able to stop talking about snow?

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Year-To-Date Precipitation (Through Saturday)

No, your mind doesn't deceive you - it's been a wet start to the year across much of the region. Looking at year-to-date precipitation through Saturday, just over a foot of rain has already fallen in the Twin Cities, which is +3.84" above average through May 18th. Rochester and Sioux Falls have also broken the foot mark for the year, with St. Cloud about an inch short.

The rain that fell Saturday helped push the Twin Cities up to 10th wettest start to the year (through May 18th) on record, just a few hundredths of an inch shy of 9th place. Looking ahead to where we could be after we add Sunday's rainfall in, I wouldn't be surprised if we climbed up a place or two on the list.

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A Groan-Worthy Headline: More Rain On The Way This Week

Just what we want to hear, right? At least a couple more rounds of rain are likely this upcoming week across the state - one working in Tuesday into Wednesday with the other occurring Thursday Night into Friday. While the above map does include some rain totals from Sunday, at least an additional 1-3" of rain could fall across Minnesota by the time we get into Memorial Day weekend.

We can see those two rounds of rain in this model forecast for the Twin Cities. The first Tuesday into Wednesday would bring about an additional half an inch to an inch of rain, with the same totals expected Thursday Night as well.

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Early Look At Memorial Day Weekend

Here's an early look at the potential weather for Memorial Day weekend in the Twin Cities. Right now both Saturday and Sunday looks dry, but Memorial Day Monday could feature some rain. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.

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Minnesota's Weather Goes Off The Rails
By Paul Douglas

Anyone else think it's strange to see accumulating snow about a month away from the Summer Solstice? Global cooling? Uh, no. More like Global Weirding.

The planet is warming, but it's uneven. Lumpy.

Rapid warming of the Arctic appears to be displacing cold air farther south over Canada with greater frequency. The result? Cooler springs and sharper temperature gradients capable of spinning up stronger, wetter storms for the Upper Midwest. Not every spring, but lately a majority of springs.

We are conducting an experiment on the atmosphere that humans haven't been around to witness before. Tipping points? We still don't know what we don't know.

I do know that Minnesotans are frustrated with the current pattern. We get a break today, with some cool sun and low 60s. A storm may drop another inch of rain Tuesday, and a surge of warmer air sparks T-storms Thursday into early Friday.

The good news: much of Friday and Saturday looks sunny and lukewarm. Showers and T-storms may return late Sunday into Monday. Why? Because they can.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Partly sunny, better. High 64. Low 47. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Heavy showers, possible thunder. High 57. Low 48. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 15-25 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Some mild sun, slight thunder risk. High 73. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Sticky with scattered T-storms. High 76. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Showers taper early. Skies clear. High 77. Low 55. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and less humid. High 74. Low 56. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Dry start, showers & T-storms late? High 71. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
May 20th

1892: Very late season snowfall hits central Minnesota. Maple Plain receives 4 inches of snow, with 3 inches falling in Minneapolis. This is the latest significant snow on record for the Twin Cities, and one of the latest widespread snowfalls in Minnesota.

1876: A tornado touches down near Ft. Ripley.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 20th

Average High: 71F (Record: 94F set in 2009)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 31F set in 1892)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 1.47" set in 2017)
Average Snow: 0.0" (Record: 3.0" in 1892)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 20th

Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:40 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 1 minute and 39 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 4 seconds
*When Will We See 15.5 Hours Of Daylight? June 8th (15 hours, 30 minutes, and 43 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM: May 31st (5:30 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 9 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Good news! Monday should be a sunnier and warmer day across Minnesota, with highs mainly in the 60s. Some areas in the Arrowhead/along the North Shore and in southwestern Minnesota may be stuck in the 50s, though.

Sadly though, these highs will still be below average across most of the state. The greatest departure from averages will be in southern Minnesota, where some areas will be 10-15F below the average high for May 20th. In the Twin Cities, that average high is 71F.

I have even better news: it doesn't look like we'll repeat the 40s for highs we saw this weekend anytime soon. Tuesday will be slightly cooler than Monday with the expected rain as highs only climb into the 50s, otherwise highs will climb back into the 70s Wednesday, lasting into at least the first part of the Memorial Day weekend.

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National Weather Forecast

A new system pushing out into the central United States will help to produce rain and mountain snow from the Northern Rockies out into the Plains. Some of the storms across the central and southern Plains will be severe - more on that in a moment. A cold front pushing through the eastern United States will produce showers and storms from New England into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a new system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring the region rain and higher elevation snow.

The heaviest rain through Tuesday evening will be across the central United States, where an area of 2-5" of rain could fall. This will cause the potential of flooding across parts of the region.

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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Monday Across Parts Of Texas And Oklahoma - Praedictix Custom Weather Briefing: Sunday morning, May 18th, 2019

  • As a new system pushes into the central United States, a significant severe weather event is likely to unfold Monday across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. A Moderate Risk has been issued from the Texas panhandle into central Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Childress. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and the threat of significant tornadoes does exist.
  • Facilities located in the elevated severe risk region should review safety procedures ahead of the severe weather threat tomorrow and make sure they are prepared to act quickly if threatening weather impacts the area.
  • We will also be watching the potential for another round of heavy rain across the mid-section of the nation with this storm. Areas from the Texas panhandle to Omaha could see another 2-5” of rain Monday into Tuesday on top of heavy rain that has already fallen in recent days. Some Flash Flood Watches have already been issued.

Monday Weather Set Up. As a new system starts to push out into the central United States to begin the work week, a warm front will be lifting northward across parts of Texas and Oklahoma with storms expected to form across the warm sector during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms would be capable of all modes of severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes - some of which could be strong. Another round of storms is expected Monday Night across the region, particularly capable of damaging winds.

Moderate Severe Weather Risk Monday. Due to the potential significant severe weather risk across parts of Texas and Oklahoma, a Moderate Risk of severe weather is already in place for Monday. This Moderate Risk includes locations like Oklahoma City and Lawton (OK) as well as Childress (TX). Once again, all modes of severe weather are possible with the first round of storms, and the atmosphere is set up for the potential of strong, significant tornadoes. The second round of storms - expected Monday Night - will contain mainly a damaging wind threat.

Heavy Rain Threat. The other threat to watch Monday into Tuesday will be another round of heavy rain across parts of the central United States, including areas that could see severe weather Monday. Right now the potential exists for another 2-5” of rain from the Texas panhandle northward toward the Omaha area. This will be on top of heavy rain that has already fallen across this region not only this month (through Saturday, Oklahoma City has already received 6.46” of rain this month, with 8.00” falling in Manhattan, KS) but over the past several days, and could lead to flooding issues.

Flash Flood Watches. Due to the threat of heavy rain, some Flash Flood Watches have already been issued for the Monday-Tuesday time frame from Kansas into northwestern Missouri, southwestern Iowa, and southeastern Nebraska.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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Tropical Trouble In The Atlantic Early This Week?

The calendar may say May, that doesn't mean tropical season can't start early in the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is watching an areas southwest of Bermuda where an area of low pressure should form Monday. That area would have a chance of becoming a tropical/subtropical system by Tuesday before conditions become unfavorable for development. As of Sunday afternoon there was a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

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Moderate drought threatens to dry up profits for Lowcountry farmers

More from ABC 4 News: "A drought map of South Carolina shows that 15 South Carolina counties are dealing with a moderate drought. Several years of extreme weather, floods, frosts, and now, drought is drying up profits for our farmers. Leslie Tumbleston runs her family's blueberry farm, Champney’s. Tumbleston doesn't like what she sees, “I’m not seeing a lot here to start picking." Picking that should start in about a week. But no rain means no blueberries. “We don’t have a huge quantity of water, there’s no way we can do what God puts down in one inch of rain,” said Tumbleston."

The volcano that built Bermuda is unlike any other on Earth

More from National Geographic: "No two volcanoes are the same, but they all form in the same handful of ways. All, it seems, except for the ancient volcano forming the foundations of the island of Bermuda. After examining rocks from deep under the island, scientists discovered that this quiet volcano formed in a way that is, so far, completely unique. The work, reported this week in the journal Nature, not only solves a long-standing mystery about this beautiful isle in the Atlantic, it also describes a whole new way to make a volcano. To crack the case, the team examined a 2,600-foot-long pillar of rock that is the only core sample taken from Bermuda. Drilled from near an airport back in 1972, the core had been kept in storage at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia and was gathering dust. While the team suspected something unusual must be going on, a comprehensive geochemical assessment of the rock took them completely by surprise."

Louisiana's New Climate Plan Prepares for Migration, Resilience and Retreat as Sea Level Rises

More from InsideClimate News: "When the storms keep coming, when the land below your feet erodes and the industry that has sustained you starts to disappear, how do you stay in the place you call home? How do you leave—where do you even go? Since Hurricane Katrina battered Louisiana in 2005, followed by a series of disasters linked to climate change and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, these questions have plagued coastal parts of the state. In a sweeping plan released Wednesday, the state issued a blueprint for coping with the impacts of a warming planet, including a human migration that has already begun. "Louisiana is in the midst of an existential crisis," the report says. "Its response to this crisis can either lead to a prosperous renaissance or to a continued and sustained cycle of disaster and recovery.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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