80% Chance Severe Storm Watches Will Be Issued This Afternoon
June 10, 2016 — 1:34pm
Ripe for Severe Thunderstorms. A toxic brew of heat, gasp-worthy dew points, instability and ample low-level wind shear increases the potential for damaging thunderstorms later this afternoon. Although the primary risk is large hail and (straight-line) winds a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. Latest from NOAA SPC:
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Today should be a step in the right direction (for most of us) with 50s and a larger ration of sunshine. A relatively quiet week is shaping up, but some rain by late Friday and early Saturday signals the arrival of yet another, inevitable cold front. That, and some days I wonder what happened to...wonder?
Except for the 40 mph. winds Friday wasn't too hard to take with highs reaching the 60s over much of central and southern Minnesota. Today will feel more like mid-November with an annoying wind and a few flurries out there this morning. The pattern isn't ripe for big, beefy storms anytime soon, just a return to "average" next week.
It will be difficult to improve on Thursday's weather anytime soon, so let's not even try. We may still see a few more 60s before we're trudging around in slush, but 70s will become more fleeting as we sail into late October and early November. No big storms brewing, just an annoying wind today and flurries on Saturday. That, and NOAA is telling us to relax a little about the upcoming winter. Right.
It sure makes a difference when the sun is out - and when temperatures rise above average. Such should be the case today with 60s pretty much statewide and a southwest breeze. Soak it up because Saturday may feel like mid-November, complete with raw winds and a few PM flurries. That said, no major storms are brewing close to home anytime soon.
Admit it - having the sun out on Tuesday with temperatures closer to average for mid-October felt like a (bad) vacation. We cool off a few degrees today but tomorrow may restore your faith in a Minnesota October. No big storms of any flavor brewing - fairly quiet weather close to home looking out 1-2 weeks...