80% Chance Severe Storm Watches Will Be Issued This Afternoon
June 10, 2016 — 1:34pm
Ripe for Severe Thunderstorms. A toxic brew of heat, gasp-worthy dew points, instability and ample low-level wind shear increases the potential for damaging thunderstorms later this afternoon. Although the primary risk is large hail and (straight-line) winds a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. Latest from NOAA SPC:
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Well, we got our wish. Many of us wanted to feel warm again, after a February-like April. Mother Nature heard your plaintive cries and turned up the volume a few notches. We should hit or exceed 90F today, Saturday, Sunday and Monday - the hottest Memorial Day since 2006. In fact steamy weather lingers into much of next week; no real relief until a Canadian cool front the first weekend of June. Until then, various degrees of hot and sweaty...
26.1" of snow last month, an early spell of 90s this month. Minnesota's weather is still manic - probably always will be. Time to dig out your summer wardrobe because sweaty weather is here to stay into much of next week with a streak of low 90s possible. In fact today may bring the first 90F of 2018, and severe storms into western Minnesota by afternoon and evening.
Looking back many of us will consider this the good 'ol days - back when temperatures were comfortable - back when neighbors weren't whining about the dew point. A July-like spell of heat and humidity is coming, and by the weekend heat indices may be well into the 90s. You wanted summer? You earned a real summer. And it's coming.
Today was a little on the cool side, although the observed high of 71F is average for May 21. A big shout-out to volunteer weather observers who collect data for NOAA NCDC's COOP program - details in the blog. A hot front is brewing for late week and the weekend. Yes, it may be good time for holiday weekend plans. There, I just jinxed the forecast.
A stray shower is possible today, but amounts will be light - enough to settle the dust. Temperatures & dew points creep up as the week goes on; more numerous T-storms Wednesday into Friday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson