Ripe for Severe Thunderstorms. A toxic brew of heat, gasp-worthy dew points, instability and ample low-level wind shear increases the potential for damaging thunderstorms later this afternoon. Although the primary risk is large hail and (straight-line) winds a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. Latest from NOAA SPC:

 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE SD WITH A 1005 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO WRN WI WITH SFC WINDS LOCALLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW IN SCNTRL MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN WI. A COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL AND NE MN. THE WRF-HRRR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO NW WI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW WIND PROFILES WITH STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

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Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Risk by Afternoon: Hail and Damaging Winds Possible

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Storm risk shifts southeast of Twin Cities; Wisconsin in tornado watch