Poll finds Minn. Senate race a tossup

Jeff Wheeler, Star Tribune

Former President Bill Clinton rallied several thousand Minnesota Democrats on Thursday night to vote for Barack Obama and Al Franken.

The MPR poll of likely voters shows the race for the Minnesota Senates shows Democrat Al Franken with a lead over Sen. Norm Coleman that remains within the statistical margin of error.

Associated Press

Last update: October 31, 2008 - 10:30 AM

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ST. PAUL, Minn. - A new poll of likely voters shows the race for the Minnesota Senate remains a tossup between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken.

The poll shows Franken leading Coleman among likely voters, 41 percent to 37 percent, but that's within the margin of sampling error of 4.6 percentage points.

University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs said the race is even closer than that, because support for the candidates is "soft."

"There's about 13 percent who say they still may change their mind," he said. "So, this a race that is very close and it's still quite fluid with either candidate being in a position to pull it out."

Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails both Coleman and Franken with 17 percent, and 5 percent are undecided.

The Minnesota Public Radio News/University of Minnesota-Humphrey Institute poll surveyed 451 random likely voters by telephone Oct. 25-28. MPR reported the results Friday.

"The economy is the dominant issue," Jacobs said. "Two-thirds of voters are singling out the economy and jobs as the single most important issue, and on that they're breaking decidedly for Franken."

For example, take Scott Fogelson, who lives in Grant. "I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Franken," he said.

In a year with a better economy, Fogelson said he probably would have voted for Barkley. However, he said this year the stakes were too high to vote for a third party.

"I think Dean Barkley is qualified," he said. "I don't think he's electable. And I think we need the Democratic Party to in order to overcome the issues the country faces."

However, the poll also has bad news for Franken. Despite polls finding Democrat Barack Obama with double-digit leads in the state, Democrats generally polling better on the economy than Republicans and President Bush's low approval ratings, Franken still can't get ahead of Coleman.

In fact, an NBC News/Mason Dixon poll taken Oct. 27-28 — and reported Thursday — found Coleman with a slight lead over Franken among likely voters, 42 percent to 36 percent. In that poll, Barkley's support was at 12 percent and about 10 percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Jacobs said the new MPR poll shows Coleman has been more successful than Franken at positioning himself as a moderate.

"There's about a half of Minnesota voters who say that they think that Al Franken is too liberal, compared to just a third of Minnesotans who say Coleman is too conservative," he said.

Coleman managed to win over Minneapolis independent Janet Peterson in last week's debate.

"He leaned forward and he talked about the practicalities of being a senator," she said. "Here's what the job is, sometimes you have to vote for bills that have things in them, maybe you don't like, but you can't afford to wait for the perfect bill. And you can't go around just being against things. That was the moment."

The poll was conducted before Barkley started running TV ads, so Jacobs said Barkley's 17 percent showing was respectable.

"He's drawing equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans," he said. "And he's drawing about a third of the independents out there. That's impressive."

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Information from: Minnesota Public Radio News, http://www.mpr.org

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