"2018 Atlantic, Pacific Hurricane Season Most Active on Record"

This hurricane season is the busiest we've ever seen—and we still have more than a month to go before it's over. If you combine all the hurricanes and tropical storms that formed in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceansthis year, the 2018 hurricane season is the most active in recorded history, USA TODAY reported, citing Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. To measure the activity of a hurricane season, meteorologists use the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index which takes into account the combined number, strength and duration of tropical cyclones that formed. The average ACE for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific seasons together is 221 units of energy. But this year? The combined Atlantic/Pacific ACE is 432, breaking the previous record of 371 set in 1992, according to Klotzbach."

See more from EcoWatch HERE:

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Super Typhoon Yutu

Super Typhoon Yutu continues in the Western Pacific and is still a beast! Last week, Yutu became one of the strongest storms on earth with winds of 180mph and gusts to 220mph just before making landfall in the U.S. territories and the tiny islands of Tinian and Saipan, where they sustained severe damage. As of early Saturday, Yutu still had sustained winds of 155mph and gusts to near 190mph - Unreal!
 
 
Tracking Yutu
 
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to track Yutu west toward eastern Asia and at this point, the forecast calls for a landfall in the northern Philippines early next week as an equivalent category 4 storms with sustained winds of near 135mph and gusts to 160mph!
 
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Sunday Weather Outlook
 
High temps Sunday will be at or slightly above average. The good news is that most of the day will be dry after another clipper moved through late Saturday/Saturday night. There may even be a little sunshine that pokes out later in the afternoon!
 
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Weather Outlook
 
The weather outlook through 7PM Tuesday shows our fast moving clipper exiting the region through the day Sunday. Other than a little light precipitation across far northern MN early next week, much of the region looks to stay dry until the 2nd half of next week.
 
 
Saturday Night Clipper
 
The clipper from Saturday night into early Sunday was expected to bring slightly higher tallies of rain across parts of northern MN and WI with some isolated 0.25" to 0.50" tallies. The week ahead will remain mainly dry until Friday, when a weak system will move through with a chance of rain and snow. Stay tuned!
 
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Temperature Outlook
 
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -4F below average this October will stay at or slightly above average now through the last few days of the month. In fact, there a chance that we could hit 60F on Monday! However, the extended forecast shows temps dipping quite a bit as we head into the end of next week and the first weekend of November. High temps then could struggle to get to 40F!
 
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 Fall Color Peeping

Thanks to the Park Staff at Myre-Big Island State Parkfor the picture below who submitted this on the MN DNR fall color page on October 22nd. This park is located in far southern MN near the IA border and is past peak color.Much of the state is past peak with only minor pockets of peak color across the Mississippi River Valley in Southeastern MN.
 
 
 MN DNR Fall Color Update
 
The MN DNR continues to update their fall color report for the 2018 fall season, but unfortunately, there isn't much color left as most areas are considered past peak. 
 
 
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Chances of a White Halloween?

Hey, it's Halloween next Wednesday and thanks to @Climatologist49 on Twitter for the image below, which shows the historical probability of a white Halloween.

 

White Halloweens in Minneapolis

Here's a look at snowfall data on Halloween for Minneapolis and since 1899 (119 years of data), there has only been snow reported on 20 days and only 6 days with measureable snow (0.1" or more). Of course, who could forget the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. A record 8.2" of snow fell on Halloween day itself, but the storm dumped a total of 28.4" at the MSP Airport - UNREAL!


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2019 MN Deer Hunting Opener - Saturday, November 3rd
 
The MN Deer Hunting Opener is quickly approaching and folks heading to the woods next weekend will be keeping a close on the weather. Early forecasts suggest chilly temps with a slight chance of light rain/snow Friday into Saturday. Interestingly last year, folks in northern MN tallied upwards of 6" of snow on the Opener!!
 
Minnesota's Firearm Deer Hunting Opener Weather - "Minnesota's 2018 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 3. The normal high temperature for November 3 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s to low 30's. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 3 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. There has been significant snowfall on the Firearm Deer Hunting Opener in recent memory. 6.0 inches of snow fell at International Falls on the Deer Hunting Opener in 2017. .3 inches was reported at St. Cloud, but there was a snow cover of 4 inches. The 2017 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener was cold and wintry with 30's to low 40's statewide."
 
 
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2018 Was Most Active Hurricane Season on Record
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Happy Sunday and welcome to the end of October! That's good news for folks living along coasts in the northern hemisphere as it means hurricane season will be winding down sooner rather than later.

According to Phil Klotzbach, hurricane meteorologist at Colorado State University, 2018 was the most active season on record for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific combined.

ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy is a unit of energy that takes into account the number, strength and duration of all tropical cyclones that have formed. This year that number tallied to 432, nearly double the average and beating the previous record of 371 set in 1992, the same year Hurricane Andrew hit Florida as a category 5 storm! This year, Michael hit Florida as a category 5 storm as well.

It'll be a damp and breezy start today as a quick moving clipper departs. We should get a little taste of sunshine over the next few days with temps touching 60 Monday. Models are hinting at a chilly Halloween and maybe even some snow for the MN Deer Hunting Opener!
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Damp & breezy AMWinds: NW 10-25. High: 53.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cool. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 38.

MONDAY: A bit warmer. Some sunshine. Winds: SSE 5-15. High: 60.

TUESDAY: Brighter sky. Cooler PM breeze. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 42. High: 55.

WEDNESDAY: Witch watch. Chilly for trick-or-treaters. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 36. High: 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few flurries. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 31. High: 43.

FRIDAY: Peeks of sun. Extra layer worthy. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 30. High: 40.

SATURDAY: Rain snow mix develops. Winds: SSE 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 38.
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This Day in Weather History
October 28th

1960: A 29-day dry stretch in west central Minnesota ends.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 28th

Average High: 52F (Record: 75F set in 1948)
Average Low: 35F (Record: 17F set in 1925)

Record Rainfall: 1.97" set in 1874
Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 1895
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 28th

Sunrise: 7:46am
Sunset: 6:07pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 21 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 51 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 5 hours and 10 Minutes
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Moon Phase for October 28th at Midnight
2.4 Days Before Last Quarter

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"The planets Mercury and Jupiter appear quite close together on the sky’s dome during the last several days of October 2018. Far and away, though, the Southern Hemisphere has the advantage over the Northern Hemisphere for witnessing this celestial attraction in the deepening glow of evening twilight. But even from southerly latitudes, Mercury and Jupiter sit rather low in the sky at sunset, and then follow the sun beneath the horizon around nightfall. Our feature sky chart at top is for around 35 degrees south latitude to accommodate our friends in the Southern Hemisphere. We figure that all places north of the tropic of Cancer will have difficulty catching Mercury and Jupiter (especially Mercury) after sunset, although EarthSky watchers have surprised us before and may well surprise us again. Given an unobstructed horizon at 35 degrees north latitude, Mercury struggles to stay out as long as one hour after the sun, whereas Jupiter stays out for about one hour and 10 minutes after sunset. In the days ahead, Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier. Given a level horizon at 35 degrees south latitude, Mercury and Jupiter stay out for a whopping 1 3/4 hours after the sun. In the days ahead – just as in the Northern Hemisphere – Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier. Want to know when the sun, Mercury and Jupiter set in your sky? Click here if you live in the US or Canada, or click here if you live elsewhere worldwide."

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3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Periods of heavy precipitation over western Washington, Mon-Fri, Oct 29-Nov 2.
2.) Periods of heavy precipitation over portions of the northern Rockies, Wed-Fri, Oct 31-Nov 2.
3.) Heavy snow for portions of the central Rockies, Wed-Thu, Oct 31-Nov 1.
4.) Periods of heavy rain from the general vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley northeast to the Upper Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Oct 31-Nov 2.
5.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward and northeastward to most of the Atlantic Coast, Sat, Nov 3.
6.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the northern and central Rockies, Sat-Sun, Nov 3-4.
7.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for south-central and southeastern Alaska (including the Panhandle), Sat-Fri, Nov 3-9.
8. High winds and high significant wave heights for southwestern Alaska, Tue-Fri, Nov 6-9.
Flooding imminent/occurring over parts of Texas, and along the banks of the north-central Mississippi River.
9.) Severe Drought across the Central Rockies, the Northeast, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, California, the Northern Rockies, the Alaska Panhandle, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.


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Subtropical Storm Oscar in the Atlantic

Another named storm has developed in the Atlantic Basin and it's Oscar! The good news is that this storm is not expected to impact the US and it slowly drifts north over the next few days. 

Tracking Oscar

Here's a look at the official NHC track for Oscar, which shows it drifiting west through the weekend and could briefly become a hurricane early next week as it turns north. Again, the good news is that this storm is expected to remain a "Fish" storm and stay over open water.

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Tropical Climatology

This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop during the end of October. Keep in mind that September 10th is the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so even though we are passed the typical peak, things can still be fairly active.
 

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Lake Superior Rises - Another Clipper PM Saturday

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Dry Skies Continue. Rain/Snow Mix Possible Friday