"Thunder-Wear Alert." The latest NAM model prints out close to an inch and a quarter of rain between now and Wednesday morning as a slow-moving frontal boundary pushes across the state. The risk of severe storms is small (too much cool/stable air in place) but I could see some localized flooding problems, as much as 1.5-2" in a few towns by midday tomorrow.
Doppler at 6:47 pm. Radar shows a smear of showers and heavier thunderstorms pushing across the metro area, heavy rain (with lightning at times) into the late evening hours - a potential for minor street flooding with some 1"+ rainfall amounts.
Flash Flood Warning. The local Chanhassen office of the NWS has issued a Flash Flood warning for extreme southwestern Minnesota - very slow moving storms have dumped out several inches of rain on saturated soil. Some flooding of streets, basements and streams is likely into Tuesday night. Here are the details:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 301 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NOBLES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHERN MURRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM CDT. * RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... JACKSON...SPIRIT LAKE...WORTHINGTON...ADRIAN...ARNOLDS PARK... BERGEN...BREWSTER...ELLSWORTH...FULDA...GEORGE...HARRIS...HERON LAKE...LAKE PARK...LAKEFIELD...LISMORE...LITTLE ROCK...OCHEYEDAN... OKOBOJI...ORLEANS...ROUND LAKE...RUSHMORE...SIBLEY...SUPERIOR... WAHPETON...WEST OKOBOJI AND WILMONT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
Gulley-Gushing Rains? The 12z NAM model prints out 1.27" of rain by breakfast on Wednesday - plan on a slow, puddle-infested AM commute tomorrow.